The Environment Agency's environmental forecasting work, including scenario analysis, dealing with uncertainty, and developing new and improved environmental models.
Predicting the future state of the environment and understanding the risks we face are essential to effective environmental management. We use documented environmental modeling techniques to assess the environmental impact of both existing and proposed activities.
We use a range of models to generate forecasts for the future state of the environment, using trend information on known pressures (e.g. increasing road traffic) and the Environment Agency's own data on existing environmental quality. These forecasts are used to determine the effect of policy options, risk reduction strategies and planned operational activities.
Statistics and forecasting models
Forecasting risk is the focus for all environmental modeling developments within the Environment Agency, converging activities in this area to improve quality and consistency. We provide statistical tools and advice, and develop modeling frameworks to help familiarise our staff with a wide variety of models.
Technology and environmental foresight
We monitor emerging technology and practical environmental management techniques, assessing their potential for protecting and improving the environment, to enable the Environment Agency to determine whether its policies and practices should be adjusted to account for new developments. Forecasting risk helps to reduce the environmental impact of the Environment Agency’s own activities by providing guidance on environmental assessment, sustainable river management and geomorphology.